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When to stop a die game where a six wipes you out

Question

You roll a fair die as many times as you like and keep a running total of the faces. If a 66 appears, the total resets to zero and the game ends. You may stop before any roll and collect your current total. What stopping rule maximises your expected payout, and what is the expected payout under that rule?

Short answer

Stop once the total reaches 1515 or more; the expected payout is about 6.156.15. With total nn, one more roll changes the expectation by 56⋅3−16n\tfrac56\cdot3-\tfrac16n, which is non-negative only while n≤15n\le15 (and zero at 1515). Evaluating this threshold rule by backward induction gives roughly 6.1546.154.

Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.3 Dynamic Programming, 'Dynamic dice game', p.125; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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