When to stop a die game where a six wipes you out
Question
You roll a fair die as many times as you like and keep a running total of the faces. If a appears, the total resets to zero and the game ends. You may stop before any roll and collect your current total. What stopping rule maximises your expected payout, and what is the expected payout under that rule?
Short answer
Stop once the total reaches or more; the expected payout is about . With total , one more roll changes the expectation by , which is non-negative only while (and zero at ). Evaluating this threshold rule by backward induction gives roughly .
Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.3 Dynamic Programming, 'Dynamic dice game', p.125; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
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