Stopping rule for a red-black card payoff game
Question
A shuffled deck has red and black cards. You turn cards over one at a time without replacement; each red card earns you $1 and each black card costs you $1. You may quit at any point and keep your net winnings. What is the optimal strategy, and how much is the game worth?
Short answer
About $2.62. Let be the value with red and black left; then , measured relative to current winnings. Keep drawing while the continuation value is positive and stop as soon as it falls to zero; the recursion gives .
Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.3 Dynamic Programming, 'Dynamic card game', p.126; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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