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Stopping rule for a red-black card payoff game

Question

A shuffled deck has 2626 red and 2626 black cards. You turn cards over one at a time without replacement; each red card earns you $1 and each black card costs you $1. You may quit at any point and keep your net winnings. What is the optimal strategy, and how much is the game worth?

Short answer

About $2.62. Let f(r,b)f(r,b) be the value with rr red and bb black left; then f(r,b)=max⁡(0,rr+b(1+f(r−1,b))+br+b(−1+f(r,b−1)))f(r,b)=\max\big(0,\tfrac{r}{r+b}(1+f(r-1,b))+\tfrac{b}{r+b}(-1+f(r,b-1))\big), measured relative to current winnings. Keep drawing while the continuation value is positive and stop as soon as it falls to zero; the recursion gives f(26,26)≈2.624f(26,26)\approx2.624.

Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.3 Dynamic Programming, 'Dynamic card game', p.126; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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