Hedging a series bet with single-game wagers
Question
Two teams play a best-of-seven series (first to four wins). Your client wants a $100 bet on the series: he wins $100 if his team takes the series and loses $100 otherwise. You may only place even-money bets on individual games, and each bet can depend on the score so far. How much should you stake on the first game to replicate the series bet exactly?
Short answer
$31.25. Let be the series payoff (in units of $100) when the score is –; with even-money bets, is the average of its two successors, and the stake at each node is half the difference between them. Backward induction gives , , so the first-game stake is .
Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.3 Dynamic Programming, 'World series', p.122; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Series and the Geometric Series: Partial Sums and Convergence
- The One-Period Binomial Model: Replication, Delta Hedging, and Risk-Neutral Pricing
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
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