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Hedging a series bet with single-game wagers

Question

Two teams play a best-of-seven series (first to four wins). Your client wants a $100 bet on the series: he wins $100 if his team takes the series and loses $100 otherwise. You may only place even-money bets on individual games, and each bet can depend on the score so far. How much should you stake on the first game to replicate the series bet exactly?

Short answer

$31.25. Let V(a,b)V(a,b) be the series payoff (in units of $100) when the score is aa–bb; with even-money bets, VV is the average of its two successors, and the stake at each node is half the difference between them. Backward induction gives V(1,0)=516V(1,0)=\tfrac{5}{16}, V(0,1)=−516V(0,1)=-\tfrac5{16}, so the first-game stake is 516×100=31.25\tfrac5{16}\times100=31.25.

Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.3 Dynamic Programming, 'World series', p.122; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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