Noisy yes or no message passed down a long chain
Question
A yes/no message is handed to person , who passes it to , who passes it to , and so on along a chain . Each person, independently of everyone else, relays what they heard faithfully with probability and relays the opposite with probability , where .
Let be the probability that what passes on matches the message originally received. Find , or answer if the limit does not exist.
Short answer
. Conditioning on whether heard the right message gives , so . Since , the deviation from shrinks geometrically to zero.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Independence
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