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Optimal stopping with up to three die rolls

Question

You may throw a fair six-sided die up to three times. After each of the first two throws you can either stop and be paid the face showing, or discard it and throw again; if you reach the third throw you must accept it. What is the game worth under optimal play, and what rule achieves it?

Short answer

14/3≈4.6714/3\approx4.67. Work backwards: the last throw is worth 3.53.5, so on the second throw stop at 44 or more, worth 4+5+66+12(3.5)=4.25\tfrac{4+5+6}{6}+\tfrac12(3.5)=4.25. On the first throw stop only at 55 or 66, worth 116+46(4.25)=143\tfrac{11}{6}+\tfrac46(4.25)=\tfrac{14}{3}.

Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.3 Dynamic Programming, 'Dice game (three rolls)', p.122; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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