Optimal stopping with up to three die rolls
Question
You may throw a fair six-sided die up to three times. After each of the first two throws you can either stop and be paid the face showing, or discard it and throw again; if you reach the third throw you must accept it. What is the game worth under optimal play, and what rule achieves it?
Short answer
. Work backwards: the last throw is worth , so on the second throw stop at or more, worth . On the first throw stop only at or , worth .
Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.3 Dynamic Programming, 'Dice game (three rolls)', p.122; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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