Changing measure to speed up Monte Carlo
Question
What does a change of probability measure do, and how can it be put to work inside a Monte Carlo pricer?
Short answer
Reweighting paths by a Radon-Nikodym derivative. Changing measure means simulating under a different probability and multiplying each payoff by , so the expectation is unchanged (Girsanov describes how Brownian drifts shift). The classic Monte Carlo use is importance sampling: for a deep out-of-the-money option, drift the paths towards the strike so most finish in the money, then correct with the likelihood ratio, which can cut variance dramatically. Pricing under the risk-neutral or a numeraire measure is the same idea.
Adapted from Joshi, Denson & Downes, Quant Job Interview Questions and Answers, Q3.36, p.84; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).
Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Girsanov's Theorem
- Itô's Formula
- Applications — Monte Carlo Estimation, Error, and Confidence Intervals
Start with a free lesson: Basic Statistics and Regression is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.
Read it free