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Three pebbles forming a line on a 3x3 grid

Question

Three pebbles are thrown simultaneously onto a 3×33\times 3 tic-tac-toe grid. Each pebble independently lands in one of the nine cells, every cell being equally likely, and several pebbles may share a cell. Find the probability that the three pebbles occupy three cells forming a winning line (a full row, a full column or one of the two diagonals).

Short answer

16/24316/243. There are 93=7299^3=729 equally likely ordered outcomes. A winning line needs three distinct cells forming one of the 88 lines, and the pebbles can fill a given line in 3!=63!=6 orders, giving 4848 favourable outcomes; 48/729=16/24348/729=16/243.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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