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Expected tosses for a run of ten heads

Question

A fair coin is tossed repeatedly until it has shown heads 1010 times in a row. What is the expected total number of tosses?

Short answer

20462046. Let EkE_k be the expected tosses needed for a run of kk heads. To get kk in a row you first need k−1k-1 in a row, then one more toss; half the time that toss is a tail and you restart, so Ek=2Ek−1+2E_k = 2E_{k-1}+2. With E0=0E_0=0 this gives Ek=2k+1−2E_k = 2^{k+1}-2, and E10=211−2=2046E_{10}=2^{11}-2=2046.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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