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Splitting black and white balls between two urns

Question

Your life depends on a draw. There are 5050 white balls, 5050 black balls and two empty urns, and you must place every ball into one urn or the other, in any split you like. Then, blindfolded, you choose one of the urns at random and pull out a single ball: white means you go free, black means execution. If you arrange the balls as well as possible, what is your probability of surviving?

Short answer

7499\tfrac{74}{99}. Put one white ball alone in the first urn and the other 9999 balls (4949 white, 5050 black) in the second. Then you survive with probability 12⋅1+12⋅4999=7499≈0.747\tfrac12\cdot1+\tfrac12\cdot\tfrac{49}{99}=\tfrac{74}{99}\approx 0.747, which is as close as possible to the 34\tfrac34 ceiling of a sure urn plus a fair one.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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