Seeing a car in 5 minutes from the 20-minute odds
Question
On a quiet road, the probability of seeing at least one car during any -minute window is . Assuming cars pass at a constant average rate (so non-overlapping windows are independent), what is the probability of seeing at least one car in a -minute window?
Short answer
. No car for minutes means no car in four independent -minute windows: , so and the answer is .
Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 4.3 Conditional Probability and Bayes' Formula, 'Cars on road', p.84; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Independence
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