Ruin game with a favourable two-thirds edge
Question
Player M starts with $1 and player N with $2. In each round M takes $1 from N with probability , otherwise N takes $1 from M. The game stops as soon as either player has no money. What is the probability that M ends up with all $3?
Short answer
. With , the gambler's-ruin formula gives . Equivalently, set up the Markov chain on M's wealth and solve the two linear equations.
Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.1 Markov Chain, 'Gambler's ruin (Markov chain)', p.106; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Gambler's Ruin and First Passage Times
- Markov Chains — Transition Matrices and the Markov Property
- Exit Distributions and Exit Times
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