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Ruin game with a favourable two-thirds edge

Question

Player M starts with $1 and player N with $2. In each round M takes $1 from N with probability 23\tfrac23, otherwise N takes $1 from M. The game stops as soon as either player has no money. What is the probability that M ends up with all $3?

Short answer

4/74/7. With p=23p=\tfrac23, q=13q=\tfrac13 the gambler's-ruin formula gives 1−(q/p)11−(q/p)3=1−121−18=47\dfrac{1-(q/p)^1}{1-(q/p)^3}=\dfrac{1-\tfrac12}{1-\tfrac18}=\tfrac47. Equivalently, set up the Markov chain on M's wealth 0,1,2,30,1,2,3 and solve the two linear equations.

Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.1 Markov Chain, 'Gambler's ruin (Markov chain)', p.106; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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