A twelve versus back-to-back sevens with two dice
Question
Two fair dice are thrown together over and over. Player A wins the moment a total of is thrown. Player B wins the moment two successive throws both total . Which player is favoured, and what is that player's chance of winning?
Short answer
A is favoured, winning with probability . Track whether the last throw was a . With and the chances A wins from the fresh state and the after-a-7 state: and , which solve to .
Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.1 Markov Chain, 'Dice question', p.107; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Markov Chains — Transition Matrices and the Markov Property
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
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