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Late lecturer making a mile in random dashes

Question

A lecturer must cover 11 mile in 1010 minutes. He makes up to 33 dashes. On dash nn he covers xnx_n miles, uniform on [0,1][0,1], taking tnt_n minutes, uniform on [0,10][0,10], with all these values independent. After each dash he starts another only if he has not yet covered a mile and there is still time left, with at most 33 dashes in total. If the 1010 minutes expire part-way through a dash, time freezes and he still completes that dash's full distance. He is on time if his total distance reaches at least 11 mile. What is the probability he is on time?

Short answer

2/32/3. Measure time in units of 1010 minutes. The first dash never uses up all the time, so a second dash always happens, and he arrives if X1+X2≥1X_1+X_2\ge1 (probability 12\tfrac12). Otherwise he gets a third dash only if T1+T2<1T_1+T_2<1 (probability 12\tfrac12), and then needs X1+X2+X3≥1X_1+X_2+X_3\ge1, which given X1+X2<1X_1+X_2<1 happens with probability 23\tfrac23. Total: 12+12⋅12⋅23=23\tfrac12+\tfrac12\cdot\tfrac12\cdot\tfrac23=\tfrac23.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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