Finding a prize door with two hint spins
Question
One of doors hides a prize of million; the others are empty. Before choosing, you spin a wheel twice. On each spin, independently, the wheel reveals the prize door with probability and otherwise reveals nothing. If neither spin reveals it, you pick one of the three doors uniformly at random. What is the probability that you end up with the prize?
Short answer
. Both spins are uninformative with probability ; otherwise you know the door. So the success probability is .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Independence
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