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Waiting for a uniform to beat a random threshold

Question

Draw U∼Unif(0,1)U\sim\text{Unif}(0,1) and then an independent sequence X1,X2,…X_1,X_2,\dots of Unif(0,1)\text{Unif}(0,1) variables. Let NN be the index of the first XnX_n that is larger than UU. Find E[N]\mathbb{E}[N], or show that it is infinite.

Short answer

It is infinite. Given U=uU=u, NN is geometric with success probability 1−u1-u, so E[N∣U]=11−U\mathbb{E}[N\mid U]=\tfrac1{1-U}. Averaging, E[N]=∫01du1−u\mathbb{E}[N]=\int_0^1\tfrac{du}{1-u}, which diverges logarithmically near u=1u=1.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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