Waiting for a uniform to beat a random threshold
Question
Draw and then an independent sequence of variables. Let be the index of the first that is larger than . Find , or show that it is infinite.
Short answer
It is infinite. Given , is geometric with success probability , so . Averaging, , which diverges logarithmically near .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
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