Examining goats until both sexes have appeared
Question
A farmer needs one male and one female goat. He examines goats one at a time; each is male with probability , independently of the others. He stops as soon as the goats he has examined include both a male and a female. Let be the number of goats examined. Find .
Short answer
. Condition on the first goat. If it is male (probability ), he waits a geometric time with mean for a female, so in total; if female, he waits a mean of for a male, so . Averaging, .
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