Who gets the first head with a one-third coin
Question
Bill and Bob each toss their own coin at the same moments, once per round; each coin shows heads with probability on every toss. What is the probability that Bill's first head arrives on a strictly earlier toss than Bob's first head?
Short answer
. Both waiting times are i.i.d. geometric with . They tie with probability , and by symmetry the remaining splits evenly between Bill first and Bob first.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
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