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Who gets the first head with a one-third coin

Question

Bill and Bob each toss their own coin at the same moments, once per round; each coin shows heads with probability 13\tfrac13 on every toss. What is the probability that Bill's first head arrives on a strictly earlier toss than Bob's first head?

Short answer

25\tfrac25. Both waiting times are i.i.d. geometric with p=13p=\tfrac13. They tie with probability ∑np2(1−p)2n−2=p2−p=15\sum_n p^2(1-p)^{2n-2}=\tfrac{p}{2-p}=\tfrac15, and by symmetry the remaining 45\tfrac45 splits evenly between Bill first and Bob first.

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