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Exactly two fives before seeing both 4 and 6

Question

Kathy throws a fair six-sided die again and again, stopping once both a 44 and a 66 have shown up (not necessarily consecutively). What is the probability that during this whole sequence of throws she saw the face 55 exactly twice?

Short answer

19/10819/108. Faces 1,2,31,2,3 are irrelevant. Before the first 44 or 66, the number of fives is kk with probability (1/3)k23(1/3)^k\tfrac23; after it, waiting for the missing face, it is jj with probability (1/2)j+1(1/2)^{j+1}. Hence P(two fives)=23(18+112+118)=19108P(\text{two fives})=\tfrac23\left(\tfrac18+\tfrac1{12}+\tfrac1{18}\right)=\tfrac{19}{108}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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