Central limit theorem and why it matters in finance
Question
Give a statement of the central limit theorem and explain what it implies for quantitative finance.
Short answer
Sums of many independent, finite-variance shocks are approximately normal. If are i.i.d. with mean and variance , then tends to . In finance this justifies normal log returns over longer horizons (hence lognormal prices and Brownian motion as a limit of random walks), and the error of Monte Carlo pricing. It fails with fat tails, infinite variance or strong dependence.
Adapted from Wilmott, Frequently Asked Questions in Quantitative Finance, FAQ 4, p.31; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- The Central Limit Theorem
- The Weak Law of Large Numbers and Convergence in Probability
- Indeterminate Forms and L'Hôpital's Rule
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