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Central limit theorem and why it matters in finance

Question

Give a statement of the central limit theorem and explain what it implies for quantitative finance.

Short answer

Sums of many independent, finite-variance shocks are approximately normal. If XiX_i are i.i.d. with mean μ\mu and variance σ2<∞\sigma^2<\infty, then n(Xˉn−μ)/σ\sqrt{n}(\bar X_n-\mu)/\sigma tends to N(0,1)N(0,1). In finance this justifies normal log returns over longer horizons (hence lognormal prices and Brownian motion as a limit of random walks), and the 1/n1/\sqrt{n} error of Monte Carlo pricing. It fails with fat tails, infinite variance or strong dependence.

Adapted from Wilmott, Frequently Asked Questions in Quantitative Finance, FAQ 4, p.31; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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