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Interpreting the two normal terms in Black-Scholes

Question

In the Black-Scholes call price C=SN(d1)−Ke−rTN(d2)C = S N(d_1) - K e^{-rT} N(d_2), what precisely do N(d1)N(d_1) and N(d2)N(d_2) represent?

Short answer

N(d2)N(d_2) is the risk-neutral probability the call finishes in the money; N(d1)N(d_1) is that probability under the stock-as-numeraire measure, and also the delta. So Ke−rTN(d2)Ke^{-rT}N(d_2) is the present value of paying the strike when you exercise, and SN(d1)=e−rTEQ[ST1ST>K]SN(d_1) = e^{-rT}\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb Q}[S_T \mathbf 1_{S_T>K}] is the present value of receiving the stock when you exercise. N(d1)N(d_1) is not the real-world exercise probability.

Adapted from Crack, Heard on the Street, Q2.9, p.24; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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