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Probability, Statistics and Financial Data / Continuous Random Variables

The Normal Distribution

The normal (Gaussian) distribution is the single most important distribution in all of quantitative finance — log-returns are routinely modelled as normal, the Black-Scholes formula is built on a log-normal terminal stock price, and every linear factor model's residual is assumed normal. This note builds the normal PDF, shows the two-parameter family N(μ,σ2)\mathcal{N}(\mu,\sigma^2) is fully characterised by its mean and variance, establishes the standardisation trick that reduces every probability calculation to a single reference table (the standard normal Φ\Phi), and proves the closure-under-linear-transformation property that makes the normal family so analytically convenient. The normalising constant 1/2πσ21/\sqrt{2\pi\sigma^2} and the distribution's moments are derived from scratch in the accompanying derivation sub-note, kept separate so this note stays at reading pace.
Learning objectives. By the end of this note you should be able to:
  • state the normal PDF and identify μ,σ2\mu,\sigma^2 as its mean and variance;
  • standardise a normal random variable and use the standard normal CDF Φ\Phi to compute probabilities;
  • state and use the closure property: a linear transformation of a normal random variable is normal;
  • explain, at a qualitative level, why the normal distribution is so pervasive in probabilistic modelling (with the full justification deferred to the Central Limit Theorem).

In this lesson

  1. The normal PDF
  2. Standardisation
  3. Closure under linear transformation
  4. Why the normal distribution is everywhere (a preview)

Before you start

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