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Probability, Statistics and Financial Data / Sampling Distributions and the Normal Family

Overview — Sampling Distributions and the Normal Family

Statistics begins with data — a finite sample drawn from a population — and immediately confronts a puzzle: the sample mean, the sample variance, the median, and other summary numbers are not the fixed quantities they look like. They are themselves random variables, with their own distributions that depend on the population distribution and the sample size. Understanding those sampling distributions is the prerequisite for every confidence interval and hypothesis test in the unit.

This topic builds the toolkit. It derives the three workhorses of normal-theory inference — the chi-squared (χ2\chi^2), Student's tt, and Snedecor's FF distributions — from the normal distribution, and shows how the sample mean and sample variance land exactly in their respective families. Along the way it extends the univariate sample-statistic machinery to the bivariate case (sample covariance and correlation), introduces order statistics, which generalise the median and quantiles to a fully probabilistic treatment, and covers the empirical CDF together with QQ-plots, the practitioner's first line of defence for checking whether a distributional assumption is plausible.

By the end of this topic you should be able to:

  • state and apply the sampling distributions of Xˉ\bar{X} and S2S^2, and the standard error, for a sample from any population;
  • compute sample covariance and sample correlation, and distinguish cross-sectional dispersion from time-series volatility;
  • state the definition of the χ2\chi^2, tt, and FF distributions and write down their construction from normals;
  • derive that (n−1)S2/σ2∼χ2(n−1)(n-1)S^2/\sigma^2 \sim \chi^2(n-1) and that Xˉ\bar{X} and S2S^2 are independent under normality;
  • compute tail probabilities for tt and FF random variables and identify which test statistic follows which distribution;
  • find the density of the kk-th order statistic and use it to characterise sample quantiles;
  • construct an ECDF and read a QQ-plot to diagnose departures from a distributional assumption.

In this lesson

  1. Contents
  2. The big picture

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