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Probability, Statistics and Financial Data / Likelihood Ratio Tests, Wilks' Theorem, and Goodness of Fit

Wald Tests and Score Tests

The generalized likelihood ratio test has one practical drawback that Wilks' theorem does not fix: computing Λ(x)\Lambda(x) requires fitting two models — the restricted MLE θ^0\hat\theta_0 and the unrestricted MLE θ^\hat\theta — even though the derivation note showed both fits converge to the same quadratic-form limit in the end. This note builds two large-sample tests that each need only one of the two fits. The Wald test uses only the unrestricted MLE θ^\hat\theta, asking how far it sits from θ0\theta_0 in information-weighted units — exactly the statistic already used to build the Wald confidence interval. The score (Rao) test uses only the restricted MLE θ^0\hat\theta_0, asking how steeply the log-likelihood is still climbing at the null value — and, remarkably, never needs to fit the unrestricted model at all. All three tests share the same asymptotic χ2(k)\chi^2(k) null distribution by Remark 1 of the derivation note; the choice between them, in practice, comes down to which model is cheaper to fit and how close the true parameter sits to a boundary of Θ\Theta.
Learning objectives. By the end of this note you should be able to:
  • state the Wald test statistic, derive it from the MLE's asymptotic normality, and compute it for a scalar and a vector parameter;
  • state the Rao score test statistic and explain why it requires fitting only the restricted model;
  • explain, at the level of the Taylor-expansion argument in the derivation note, why the LRT, Wald, and score statistics are asymptotically equivalent under H0H_0;
  • compute all three statistics for the same testing problem and compare their finite-sample values numerically;
  • decide which of the three tests to prefer in a given practical setting, based on computational cost and the boundary/reparametrisation pitfalls each carries.

In this lesson

  1. The Wald test
  2. The score (Rao) test
  3. The three tests compared numerically
  4. Why the three tests are asymptotically equivalent
  5. When to prefer each

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