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Probability, Statistics and Financial Data / Likelihood Ratio Tests, Wilks' Theorem, and Goodness of Fit

The Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test

The Neyman-Pearson lemma is airtight, but only for a narrow question: one fully specified θ0\theta_0 against one fully specified θ1\theta_1. Almost nothing a quant desk actually tests looks like that. "Does this GARCH model need the leverage term at all?", "is the recovery rate the same across these two sectors?", "does a three-regime model fit better than two?" — every one of these pits a composite null against a composite alternative, sets of parameter values rather than single points, exactly the case Remark 2 of the Neyman-Pearson lemma note flagged as outside the lemma's reach. This note builds the tool that fills that gap: the generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT), which replaces "the ratio of two likelihoods at two fixed points" with "the ratio of the best-case likelihoods each hypothesis can offer" — a maximized likelihood under the null over a maximized likelihood under the full model. The construction gives up the Neyman-Pearson lemma's exact, provable optimality, but it is the single most widely applicable test-construction principle in statistics, playing the same organizing role for testing that the MLE plays for estimation.
Learning objectives. By the end of this note you should be able to:
  • define the generalized likelihood ratio statistic Λ(x)\Lambda(x) for a composite null against the full parameter space, and show Λ(x)∈[0,1]\Lambda(x)\in[0,1];
  • construct the GLRT rejection region and explain, in terms of restricted and unrestricted MLEs, what the statistic measures;
  • derive the GLRT for a normal mean (known variance) and for a normal variance (mean unknown), and identify the sufficient statistic each reduces to;
  • explain why the GLRT can be computed from any sufficient statistic for θ\theta, mirroring the analogous fact for the Neyman-Pearson test;
  • state precisely why the GLRT, unlike the Neyman-Pearson test, carries no general finite-sample optimality guarantee.

In this lesson

  1. From two points to two sets
  2. Rejection region and restricted vs. unrestricted MLEs
  3. Worked example: testing a normal mean
  4. Worked example: testing a normal variance
  5. Reduction to a sufficient statistic

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