Gamma-Poisson posterior mean for family size
Question
The number of children per family is modelled as Poisson with rate , and is given a Gamma prior with shape and rate . A survey of families finds children in total. What is the posterior mean of ?
Short answer
. The Gamma prior is conjugate to the Poisson: the posterior is Gamma with shape and rate , so its mean is .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Defining the Poisson Process: Three Equivalent Constructions
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
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