Winning a tennis game from 30 all
Question
In a game of tennis the points run . A player on whose opponent has fewer points wins the game by taking the next point. At – (deuce) the next point gives its winner the advantage; the player with advantage wins the game by also taking the following point, but if they lose it the score returns to deuce.
Novak and Carlos are at –. Novak wins each point with probability , independently. What is the probability that Novak wins the game?
Short answer
. From –, just like from deuce, a player needs to win two points in a row before the opponent does; a split pair returns the score to a tied state. Novak takes two straight with probability and Carlos with , so Novak wins with probability .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Independence
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