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Top seed meeting the third-best player in the final

Question

In a single-elimination tournament, 128128 players with all-different ratings are placed into a bracket uniformly at random, and every game is won by the higher-rated player. The event runs for 77 rounds, the last being the final. What is the probability that the final is played between the best player and the third-best player?

Short answer

32127\tfrac{32}{127}. The final is between the two half-bracket winners, so we need the second-best player in the top player's half of 64 and the third-best in the other half. That happens with probability 63127⋅64126=32127\tfrac{63}{127}\cdot\tfrac{64}{126}=\tfrac{32}{127}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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