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Extinction chance when each cell has up to three offspring

Question

A dish starts with a single bacterium. Each minute every bacterium, independently of the others, does one of four things with probability 14\tfrac14 each: dies, stays as it is, divides into two, or divides into three. The probability that the colony eventually dies out can be written as a−b\sqrt{a}-b with integers a,ba,b. Find a+ba+b.

Short answer

33. Conditioning on the first minute, the extinction probability xx solves x=14(1+x+x2+x3)x=\tfrac14(1+x+x^2+x^3), i.e. (x−1)(x2+2x−1)=0(x-1)(x^2+2x-1)=0. Since the mean offspring count is 1.5>11.5>1, extinction is the smallest root in [0,1][0,1], namely x=2−1x=\sqrt2-1, so a+b=2+1=3a+b=2+1=3.

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