Extinction chance when each cell has up to three offspring
Question
A dish starts with a single bacterium. Each minute every bacterium, independently of the others, does one of four things with probability each: dies, stays as it is, divides into two, or divides into three. The probability that the colony eventually dies out can be written as with integers . Find .
Short answer
. Conditioning on the first minute, the extinction probability solves , i.e. . Since the mean offspring count is , extinction is the smallest root in , namely , so .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
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