Time to climb one step with downward drift
Question
A particle starts at on the integer line. Each step it moves up by one with probability and down by one with probability , independently. What is the expected number of steps until it first visits ? (State whether the expectation is infinite.)
Short answer
Infinite. With downward drift, the walk reaches only with probability . Since there is positive probability of never arriving, the hitting time is infinite with positive probability and so its expectation is infinite.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Gambler's Ruin and First Passage Times
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
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