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Three people all stopping within two tosses

Question

Each of three people tosses a coin that lands heads with probability 0.250.25, stopping at their first tails. What is the probability that nobody needs more than two tosses?

Short answer

3375/40963375/4096. One person finishes within two tosses unless the first two are both heads, so the chance is 1−116=15161-\tfrac{1}{16}=\tfrac{15}{16}. By independence the answer is (15/16)3=3375/4096(15/16)^3=3375/4096.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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