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Sex of a newly added baby after drawing a boy

Question

A room holds five babies, two boys and three girls. A sixth baby, equally likely to be a boy or a girl, is brought in. One of the six babies is then chosen at random and turns out to be a boy. What is the probability that the newly added baby is a boy?

Short answer

3/53/5. If the newcomer is a boy, a random pick is a boy with probability 3/63/6; if a girl, 2/62/6. With equal priors, Bayes gives 3/63/6+2/6=35\dfrac{3/6}{3/6+2/6}=\dfrac35.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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