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Ten-door Monty Hall with three goats revealed

Question

A game show has 1010 closed doors: one hides $1000 and the other nine hide goats (worth nothing). You pick a door at random. The host, who knows where the money is, then opens three of the doors you did not pick, each revealing a goat, and lets you either stay with your door or switch to one of the other unopened doors. Playing optimally, what is the expected value of the game in dollars?

Short answer

$150. Staying wins with probability 110\tfrac1{10}. Switching wins only if your first pick was a goat (910\tfrac9{10}) and you then pick the prize among the 66 remaining closed doors (16\tfrac16): 320\tfrac{3}{20}. So switch, for an expected 320⋅1000=150\tfrac3{20}\cdot1000=150 dollars.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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