Expected hitting time of +1 for a fair walk
Question
A particle starts at on the integers and at each step moves up or down by one with equal probability . What is the expected number of steps until it first reaches position ? If this expectation is infinite, answer .
Short answer
(the expectation is infinite). Conditioning on the first step gives , i.e. , which has no finite solution. The walk reaches with probability one, but the hitting time has a heavy tail (), so its mean diverges.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Gambler's Ruin and First Passage Times
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
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