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Switching doors after a random goat reveal

Question

On a game show there are three doors: one hides a car and two hide goats. You choose door 11. Then an audience member, who has no idea where the car is, opens door 33 at random and it happens to show a goat. You may now stick with door 11 or switch to door 22. What is the probability of winning the car if you switch?

Short answer

12\tfrac12. Unlike the classic Monty Hall setup, the reveal is not guaranteed to show a goat. Conditioning on the random door 3 showing a goat simply rules out "car behind 3", leaving doors 1 and 2 equally likely, so switching wins with probability 12\tfrac12.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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