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Stopping on three consecutive face-down cards

Question

Three face-down cards carry the values nn, n+1n+1 and n+2n+2 in random order, where nn is unknown to you. You turn them over one at a time. After seeing the first card you may stop and be paid its value, or continue; after the second you may stop and take the second card's value, or else you must take the third card's value. Under an optimal strategy the expected payout is n+cn+c. Find cc.

Short answer

43\tfrac43. Shift so the cards are 0,1,20,1,2. Stopping at the first card gives 11 on average, so look at the second card: if it exceeds the first, keep it; otherwise take the third. Over the six equally likely orders this pays 1,2,2,2,1,01,2,2,2,1,0 for a mean of 86=43\tfrac86=\tfrac43, and checking every rule based on the observed difference shows nothing does better.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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