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Second red draw from a random urn as urns multiply

Question

There are nn urns. Urn ii (1≤i≤n1\le i\le n) holds one red ball and 2i−12^i-1 blue balls. You pick an urn uniformly at random and draw a ball, which turns out red. You put it back and draw again from that same urn. Let p(n)p(n) be the probability the second ball is also red. What is lim⁡n→∞p(n)\lim_{n\to\infty}p(n)?

Short answer

1/31/3. By Bayes, p(n)=∑i4−i∑i2−ip(n)=\dfrac{\sum_i 4^{-i}}{\sum_i 2^{-i}} (the 1/n1/n factors cancel). As n→∞n\to\infty the sums tend to 13\tfrac13 and 11, so the limit is 13\tfrac13.

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