Second red draw from a random urn as urns multiply
Question
There are urns. Urn () holds one red ball and blue balls. You pick an urn uniformly at random and draw a ball, which turns out red. You put it back and draw again from that same urn. Let be the probability the second ball is also red. What is ?
Short answer
. By Bayes, (the factors cancel). As the sums tend to and , so the limit is .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
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