Rolling until a six under three conditions
Question
Dan keeps rolling a fair die and stops as soon as a 6 comes up. Find the expected number of rolls in each case.
(a) You are told that no 5 appeared during his rolls.
(b) You are told that at least one 5 appeared.
(c) You are told that every roll he made showed an even number.
Short answer
(a) ; (b) ; (c) . (a) No 5 means the first roll from was a 6; the waiting time for that first roll is geometric with and independent of which face it is, so the mean is 3. (b) Unconditionally the mean is 6 , so . (c) Likewise the first odd-or-6 roll is geometric with , so the mean is .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
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