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Rolling until a six under three conditions

Question

Dan keeps rolling a fair die and stops as soon as a 6 comes up. Find the expected number of rolls in each case.

(a) You are told that no 5 appeared during his rolls.

(b) You are told that at least one 5 appeared.

(c) You are told that every roll he made showed an even number.

Short answer

(a) 33; (b) 99; (c) 32\tfrac32. (a) No 5 means the first roll from {5,6}\{5,6\} was a 6; the waiting time for that first roll is geometric with p=13p=\tfrac13 and independent of which face it is, so the mean is 3. (b) Unconditionally the mean is 6 =12⋅3+12⋅Eb=\tfrac12\cdot 3+\tfrac12\cdot E_b, so Eb=9E_b=9. (c) Likewise the first odd-or-6 roll is geometric with p=23p=\tfrac23, so the mean is 32\tfrac32.

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