Long-run share of time a toddler spends at the couch
Question
A toddler practises walking along a straight line starting from a couch. Each time step, it moves one step away from the couch with probability , stays put with probability , and moves one step back toward the couch with probability . It cannot go behind the couch, so when it is at the couch it moves away with probability and otherwise stays there. Over a very long observation period, what fraction of the time is the toddler at the couch?
Short answer
. This is a birth–death chain; detailed balance gives , so . Summing the geometric series, , so .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
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