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Long-run share of time a toddler spends at the couch

Question

A toddler practises walking along a straight line starting from a couch. Each time step, it moves one step away from the couch with probability 0.20.2, stays put with probability 0.50.5, and moves one step back toward the couch with probability 0.30.3. It cannot go behind the couch, so when it is at the couch it moves away with probability 0.20.2 and otherwise stays there. Over a very long observation period, what fraction of the time is the toddler at the couch?

Short answer

1/31/3. This is a birth–death chain; detailed balance gives 0.2 πn=0.3 πn+10.2\,\pi_n=0.3\,\pi_{n+1}, so πn=π0(2/3)n\pi_n=\pi_0(2/3)^n. Summing the geometric series, π0⋅3=1\pi_0\cdot 3=1, so π0=13\pi_0=\tfrac13.

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