Rolling until a 5 pays out or a 6 busts
Question
A fair die is thrown over and over. The game ends the moment a or a appears. If the game ends on a , you are paid the total of every throw made before it (the itself does not count); if it ends on a , you get nothing. You cannot stop early. Find the expected payout.
Short answer
. The game ends on a or a with equal probability. The number of throws before the end is geometric with mean , and each of those throws is uniform on with mean , independently of how the game ends. So the expected payout is .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
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