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Red cherry chance after moving half a bowl

Question

Bowl AA contains 100100 red and 300300 purple cherries, while bowl BB contains 300300 red and 100100 purple cherries. Half of the cherries in bowl AA, chosen at random, are moved into bowl BB. A single cherry is then drawn at random from bowl BB. What is the probability it is red?

Short answer

7/127/12. After the move bowl BB holds 600600 cherries: 200200 came from AA (each red with probability 14\tfrac14) and 400400 were already there (red with probability 34\tfrac34). By total probability, 13⋅14+23⋅34=712\tfrac13\cdot\tfrac14+\tfrac23\cdot\tfrac34=\tfrac{7}{12}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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