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One random number strictly topping another

Question

Jimmy picks a number uniformly at random from {1,…,1000}\{1,\dots,1000\} and, independently, Simon picks one uniformly from {1,…,3000}\{1,\dots,3000\}. What is the probability that Simon's number is strictly greater than Jimmy's?

Short answer

4999/60004999/6000. Given Jimmy picks kk, Simon beats it with probability 3000−k3000\tfrac{3000-k}{3000}. Averaging over kk: 1−13000⋅10012=1−10016000=499960001-\tfrac{1}{3000}\cdot\tfrac{1001}{2}=1-\tfrac{1001}{6000}=\tfrac{4999}{6000}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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