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Odd number of heads from increasingly biased coins

Question

You have nn coins. Coin kk (for k=1,…,nk=1,\dots,n) lands heads with probability 12k+1\tfrac{1}{2k+1}. All nn coins are tossed once. What is the probability that the total number of heads is odd?

Short answer

n2n+1\tfrac{n}{2n+1}. For independent coins, P(even)−P(odd)=∏k(1−2pk)=∏k=1n2k−12k+1=12n+1P(\text{even})-P(\text{odd})=\prod_k(1-2p_k)=\prod_{k=1}^n\tfrac{2k-1}{2k+1}=\tfrac{1}{2n+1} by telescoping. So P(odd)=12(1−12n+1)=n2n+1P(\text{odd})=\tfrac12\left(1-\tfrac{1}{2n+1}\right)=\tfrac{n}{2n+1}.

Adapted from Wilmott, Frequently Asked Questions in Quantitative Finance, ch. 10 brainteaser 'Biased coins', p.351; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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