Most heads when coins can only be turned in pairs
Question
You toss four fair coins. Afterwards you may turn coins over (heads to tails or tails to heads), but only two at a time; flipping a lone coin is not allowed. You may do this as many times as you wish. With the best play, what is the expected number of heads at the end?
Short answer
. Turning two coins preserves the parity of the number of heads, and any configuration of the same parity is reachable. An even head count can become heads; an odd one can reach at most . Each parity has probability , so the answer is .
Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).
Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
Start with a free lesson: Expectation, Variance and Covariance is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.
Read it free