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Gain from respinning the revolver in two-bullet roulette

Question

A six-chamber revolver is loaded with 22 bullets in random chambers and the cylinder is spun. You and a friend alternate pulls, and your friend goes first and survives. Before your pull you can either spin the cylinder again or leave it. By how much does spinning raise your survival probability compared with not spinning?

Short answer

1/151/15. Without a spin, the next chamber is one of the 55 unused chambers, 33 of them empty: survival 35\tfrac35. With a spin, survival is 46\tfrac46. The difference is 23−35=115\tfrac23-\tfrac35=\tfrac1{15}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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