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Markov chain return time to a bad bagel

Question

Bagels come off a production line one after another, each either good or bad. After a good bagel, the next is good with probability 25\tfrac25; after a bad bagel, the next is bad with probability 35\tfrac35. The current bagel is bad. What is the expected number of further bagels that come off the line up to and including the next bad one?

Short answer

5/35/3. With probability 35\tfrac35 the very next bagel is bad. Otherwise it is good, and from a good bagel each step turns bad with probability 35\tfrac35, a geometric wait of mean 53\tfrac53. So the answer is 1+25⋅53=531+\tfrac25\cdot\tfrac53=\tfrac53 (equivalently, 1/πbad1/\pi_{\text{bad}} with stationary probability πbad=35\pi_{\text{bad}}=\tfrac35).

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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