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Keep or reroll with a penalty when the total hits seven

Question

Roll a fair die. You may take the shown amount in dollars, or roll a second time. If you roll again and the two rolls total 77 or more, you must pay out the value of your first roll; if the total is below 77, you are paid the value of the second roll. With optimal decisions, what is your expected payout?

Short answer

67/1867/18. Rerolling after a first roll of rr is worth 16[∑s≤6−rs−r2]\tfrac16\left[\sum_{s\le 6-r}s-r^2\right]: that is 73\tfrac73 for r=1r=1 (beats 11), but only 11 for r=2r=2 and less for higher rr. So reroll only a 11, giving 16(73+2+3+4+5+6)=6718\tfrac16\left(\tfrac73+2+3+4+5+6\right)=\tfrac{67}{18}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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