Keep or reroll with a penalty when the total hits seven
Question
Roll a fair die. You may take the shown amount in dollars, or roll a second time. If you roll again and the two rolls total or more, you must pay out the value of your first roll; if the total is below , you are paid the value of the second roll. With optimal decisions, what is your expected payout?
Short answer
. Rerolling after a first roll of is worth : that is for (beats ), but only for and less for higher . So reroll only a , giving .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
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