Frog on a ring of 100 pads reaching the far pad last
Question
A frog sits on pad of a ring of lily pads labelled to in order around the circle. Each hop takes it to one of the two neighbouring pads, each with probability . What is the probability that by the time it first lands on pad , it has already visited all other pads?
Short answer
. Pad is last exactly when, after first reaching one of its neighbours (say ), the frog goes all the way round to , which is steps away, before stepping onto , which is step away. Gambler's ruin gives . (On a cycle, every pad other than the start is equally likely to be the last one visited.)
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Markov Chains — Transition Matrices and the Markov Property
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
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