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Frog on a ring of 100 pads reaching the far pad last

Question

A frog sits on pad 00 of a ring of 100100 lily pads labelled 00 to 9999 in order around the circle. Each hop takes it to one of the two neighbouring pads, each with probability 12\tfrac12. What is the probability that by the time it first lands on pad 5050, it has already visited all 9898 other pads?

Short answer

199\tfrac{1}{99}. Pad 5050 is last exactly when, after first reaching one of its neighbours (say 4949), the frog goes all the way round to 5151, which is 9898 steps away, before stepping onto 5050, which is 11 step away. Gambler's ruin gives 11+98=199\tfrac{1}{1+98}=\tfrac1{99}. (On a cycle, every pad other than the start is equally likely to be the last one visited.)

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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