Coin flips needed to simulate a one-third event
Question
To generate an event with probability using a fair coin, toss the coin twice: two heads means the event occurs, one head and one tail (in either order) means it does not, and two tails means you discard the pair and start again with two fresh tosses. What is the expected number of tosses used?
Short answer
. Each round costs two tosses and ends the procedure with probability , so the number of rounds is geometric with mean and the expected number of tosses is .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
- Applications — Monte Carlo Estimation, Error, and Confidence Intervals
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