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Fraction of diners who know a seat neighbour

Question

At a party, 2m2m people (m>1m>1) sit in random order around a round table. They carry distinct labels 0,1,…,2m−10,1,\dots,2m-1, and the person labelled ii knows exactly ii of the other 2m−12m-1 guests. Acquaintance need not be mutual: BB knowing AA does not mean AA knows BB. What is the expected fraction of guests who know at least one of the two people seated beside them?

Short answer

2/32/3. Seating is random, so person kk knows neither neighbour with probability (2m−1−k2)/(2m−12)\binom{2m-1-k}{2}/\binom{2m-1}{2}. Summing over kk via the hockey-stick identity gives (2m3)\binom{2m}{3}, so the average of these probabilities is exactly 13\tfrac13; by linearity the expected fraction is 23\tfrac23.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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