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First of three alternating 50 percent shooters to hit

Question

Three marksmen XX, YY and ZZ fire at a target in the repeating order X,Y,Z,X,Y,Z,…X,Y,Z,X,Y,Z,\dots, stopping as soon as someone hits. Every shot hits with probability 12\tfrac12, independently. What is the probability that XX is the one who hits first?

Short answer

47\tfrac47. The first hit is on shot kk with probability 2−k2^{-k}, and XX fires shots 1,4,7,…1,4,7,\dots. Summing, 12(1+18+164+⋯ )=12⋅87=47\tfrac12\left(1+\tfrac18+\tfrac1{64}+\cdots\right)=\tfrac12\cdot\tfrac87=\tfrac47. Equivalently, the three win chances are in ratio 1:12:141:\tfrac12:\tfrac14.

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