First of three alternating 50 percent shooters to hit
Question
Three marksmen , and fire at a target in the repeating order , stopping as soon as someone hits. Every shot hits with probability , independently. What is the probability that is the one who hits first?
Short answer
. The first hit is on shot with probability , and fires shots . Summing, . Equivalently, the three win chances are in ratio .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Independence
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